2025-26 Playoff Predictions - Varsity Boys
- Feb 12
- 12 min read
A Varsity Boys
SouthWest “A” Boys Sectional at Harvey High School
Game 1 - Harvey HS vs Samuel de Champlain
Harvey has come out on top in all three matchups this year, but all have been back and forth games that could have gone either way.
SdC is known for their aggressive 2-3 zone, which is extended up to half court. Forcing turnovers and getting baskets in transition will be a key to success. They are also relentless on the glass and have a decided size advantage over Harvey - offensive rebounding is going to be play a big part in determining the outcome of this game.
Harvey has excellent perimeter skills and may be the best shooting team in A this year. If the threes are dropping they will be tough to beat in their own gym. They too look to pressure aggressively and force steals that lead to break outs. The team that wins the turnover battle will likely come out on top.
Prediction
Looking for another high paced, high scoring tilt that will be fun to watch. Harvey manages to score a little more and move on to the sectional final
HHS 86 - SdC 68
Game 2 - Petitcodiac Regional HS vs Central NB Academy
Petitcodiac has been the class of the NE all year before a surprising loss at home during regionals. They will be looking to bounce back this weekend. CNBA won the North, but struggled against Sussex Christian who were evenly matched with Petitcodiac.
Prediction
Petitcodiac will prove to be too much for CNBA, whose excellent season will come to an end.
PRHS 80 - CNBA 60
Game 3 - Harvey vs Petitcodiac Regional HS
The SW has shown to be the dominant side time and time again this year, and this matchup should be no different.
Prediction
Petiticodiac will come out strong looking for the upset, but Harvey has too much talent, and when combined with their aggressive ball pressure defense, will pull away in the second half.
HHS 88 - PRS 64
NorthEast “A” Boys Sectional at Sussex Christian
Game 1 - Sussex Christian vs Moncton Christian
These two teams split their matchups in the regular season, but based on their performances at Regionals it appears Sussex Christian is peaking at the right time.
Prediction
With the support of the home crowd, Sussex Christian is able to pull out a comfortable win.
SCS 73 - MCA 55
Game 2 - Fredericton Christian vs Hartland
This game features a matchup of two high powered offenses. Hartland has the ability to shoot the three as well as anyone and has lots of size to create second chance opportunities. Fredericton Christian has a similar profile, but has the ability to score from more levels consistently. Both teams are prone to foul trouble, so putting pressure on the rim will be critical for success. This should be a back in forth battle that comes down to the final minutes.
Prediction
Fredericton Christian’s experience from last year’s run to TD Station helps propel them to victory in crunch time.
FCA 85 - Hartland 80
Game 3 - Sussex Christian vs Fredericton Christian
All cross province matchups throughout the season point to the SW being the stronger side this year. Fredericton Christian’s combination of defensive pressure, size, and skill will be tough for Sussex Christian to handle.
Prediction
Fredericton Christian makes a return trip to TD Station with a convincing win.
FCA 90 - SCS 58
AA Varsity Boys
Southwest “AA” Boys Sectional at Woodstock High School
Game 1 - Woodstock HS vs. St. Stephen HS
#1 seed Woodstock faces #4 St. Stephen in a highly anticipated semifinal matchup. Woodstock has been dominant all season and are undefeated in AA, and when these teams last met, they rolled to a 103–73 win.
Woodstock’s zone defense has been the backbone of their success, forcing tough shots and creating transition opportunities. Offensively, their three-point shooting makes them dangerous, with multiple players capable of heating up quickly from beyond the arc.
St. Stephen, however, enters as the 1st place team in the South, dominating their conference throughout the season. They’ll look to crack Woodstock’s zone and contest the perimeter to avoid another high-scoring outburst.
Prediction
In the first Matchup St. Stephen was able to keep it competitive for 3 quarters and this game will be similar with the more experienced Woodstock team pulling it out convincingly at the end.
WHS 95- SSHS 68
Game 2 - Miramichi Valley HS vs. Bathurst HS
North Conference rivals Bathurst and MVHS meet once again in what’s shaping up to be another intense battle. Miramichi (MVHS) holds a 2–0 record over Bathurst this season, but both matchups proved just how competitive this rivalry is.
In their first meeting, Will McLeod erupted for 45 points for Bathurst in a huge performance. If MVHS wants to keep their perfect record against the North rival intact, slowing down McLeod will be priority number one.
The second matchup showed MVHS’s resilience. Trailing by 19 at halftime, The Pulamoo stormed back in the second half to complete an impressive comeback victory at home.
Both teams love to shoot the three, meaning perimeter defense and hot shooting could ultimately decide this game. With familiarity, star power, and bragging rights on the line, expect another hard-fought showdown between these North Conference rivals.
Prediction
Back and forth Affair but MVHS ultimately takes it.
MVHS 87 – BHS 82
Game 3 - Woodstock HS vs. Miramichi Valley HS
WHS and MVHS meet once again, with Woodstock holding a 4–0 advantage in the season series. Woodstock has had the upper hand all year, dominating three of the four matchups by 30 points or more, and enters as the favorite to win it all.
MVHS is led by sharp-shooter Aiden Forbes, whose ability to stretch the floor and knock down big shots makes him a constant threat. If Miramichi hopes to flip the script, they’ll need a disciplined defensive effort and strong execution on both ends.
Containing Jackson McCartney will be key. MVHS must also do a better job handling the shooters Woodstock has around him, as WHS thrives on ball movement and perimeter scoring. With a roster loaded with Grade 12s, Woodstock brings experience and composure to big moments, guided by veteran head coach Scott Jones.
Despite the regular-season results, MVHS will look to embrace the underdog role and challenge a seasoned Woodstock squad with a trip to the Final 12 on the line.
Prediction
Anticipate a high scoring matchup with WHS coming out on top.
WHS 90- MVHS 74
Northeast “AA” Boys Sectional at Salisbury Regional School
Game 1 - Salisbury Regional HS vs. Tantramar Regional HS
Salisbury and Tantramar are set to meet in what should be a tightly contested matchup. SRS holds a 2–0 edge in the season series, but both games were close, proving Tantramar can compete with them.
Salisbury enters with momentum after a massive 97–89 regional final win over MVHS. Known for their physical style of play, SRS brings toughness on both ends of the floor and won’t shy away from contact. Playing at home, the Salisbury crowd will also be a major factor, providing energy in key moments.
Tantramar, however, is a team that never backs down. They don’t give up and will battle until the final buzzer, making them a dangerous opponent regardless of the score.
With two close regular-season meetings and a trip on the line, expect another hard-fought battle between these two teams.
Prediction
Slow start, strong finish
SRS 91- TRHS 73
Game 2 - Carleton North HS vs Ecole Sainte Anne
ESA and Carleton North split their regular-season league matchups at 1–1, setting the stage for an exciting rubber match. Carleton North dominated the first meeting, controlling the tempo with their physical and tough style of play. But ESA responded in the second matchup, shocking CNHS with a statement win.
ESA has battled injuries all season and has rarely had a full lineup. Now, with everyone finally healthy, they’ll look to show their full potential. They’re a team that shoots the ball well and can stretch defenses when they’re clicking from the perimeter.
Carleton North will lean on their toughness and physicality, looking to disrupt ESA’s rhythm and make it a grind-it-out game.
With the series tied and both teams bringing contrasting styles, this matchup has all the ingredients for a hard-fought battle.
Prediction
Hard-fought duel to the buzzer
CNHS 86- ESA 80
Game 3 - Salisbury Regional S vs. Carleton North HS
Salisbury hosts Carleton North in what promises to be a fierce showdown. The teams met once this year at the Potato Barrel Classic, with CNHS edging SRS by 11 points on their home court. Salisbury enters this game on a roll, riding strong momentum from a successful season and looking to use the home-court energy to their advantage.
Carleton North has also been impressive, highlighted by their performance at regionals where they took odds-on favorite Woodstock to overtime in the regional final. That showing proved they can compete with the very best and handle high-pressure situations.
Reese Thomas for CNHS will be key, expected to match Salisbury’s physicality and toughness. CNHS has an experienced roster and coaching staff who have been in more sectional games than Salisbury, which could help them in the clutch moments down the stretch.
With both teams playing at a high level, combining skill, experience, and physicality, this matchup is likely to be a thrilling battle that comes down to the final possession.
Prediction
Experience likely decides this nail-biter in the final minutes setting up the battle of Carleton County for the Final 12.
CNHS 79-77 SRS
AAA Varsity Boys
Southwest “AAA” Boys Sectional at FHS
Game 1 - Fredericton High School vs. Kennebecasis Valley HS
The opening matchup of the Provincial Sectionals features a familiar rivalry, but the storyline feels anything but uncertain.
Fredericton High School (FHS) enters Friday night with a perfect record against Kennebecasis Valley High School (KVHS) this season—and there’s little to suggest that changes now.
The most recent meeting came just last weekend in the SW Regional semifinals, where FHS delivered a statement performance in a 101–76 victory. It wasn’t just a win—it was a showcase of depth, pace, and offensive balance.
KVHS will scrap. They always do. Expect them to compete on the glass, try to control tempo, and grind possessions to keep things within reach early. If they can muddy the game and limit transition opportunities, they’ll give themselves a puncher’s chance.
But here’s the reality: FHS simply has too much firepower.
Their ability to score in waves—whether it’s pushing the ball in transition or knocking down perimeter shots in the half court—puts constant pressure on opposing defenses. Even if KV strings together a few strong possessions, FHS has shown all year that they can respond immediately with a run of their own.
The difference-maker will be pace. If FHS dictates tempo, this one could get stretched out quickly.
Prediction
KVHS competes early, maybe keeps it respectable through a quarter and a half. But by the third, FHS separates.
Final Score:FHS 95 – KVHS 68
Game 2 - Riverview High vs. École Mathieu-Martin
If the first matchup feels decisive, this one feels like a coin toss.
Riverview High School (RHS) and École Mathieu-Martin (EMM) split their NE Conference league meetings this season. No secrets. No surprises. Just two very different basketball identities colliding with a trip on the line.
RHS brings toughness. They defend with purpose, rebound with physicality, and are comfortable turning games into 32-minute wrestling matches. They’ll shrink driving lanes, contest every touch, and make you earn everything. The question, as it has been at times this season, is offensive consistency. When the shots aren’t falling, can they manufacture enough points in the half court?
EMM, on the other hand, can score. And it starts with elite scorer Sohan Riedel. When he gets rolling, the gym changes. But he’s not alone—EMM has secondary pieces who can stretch the floor and capitalize when defenses collapse. The concern? Defensive lapses. There are stretches where rotations are late and closeouts are soft, and against a disciplined team like RHS, that can be costly.
Both teams have already stared elimination in the face.
EMM was on the ropes last Friday at the NE Regional against Moncton High and found a way to survive. RHS had a similar scare against a gritty MacNaughton squad and responded with composure. That matters. These teams know what pressure feels like—and know how to play through it.
This is strength vs. skill. Grind vs. rhythm. Defense vs. shot-making.
If RHS controls tempo and keeps this in the 60s, they likely advance. If EMM turns this into a free-flowing 70s or 80s game, advantage goes to them.
It truly feels like a flip of the coin—but we’ll lean slightly toward offensive firepower in a tight one.
Prediction
A back-and-forth battle that comes down to a late possession.
EMM 80 – RHS 78
Game 3 - Fredericton High School vs. École Mathieu-Martin
After surviving their respective sectional battles, we get a marquee matchup with a provincial final berth on the line: Fredericton High School vs. École Mathieu-Martin.
On paper, this one has intrigue. In reality, it may not.
FHS has been operating at a different level all season. Their pace, spacing, and depth create relentless pressure. They don’t just score — they avalanche. A 6–0 run quickly becomes 14–2. Missed shots turn into transition buckets. And before opponents can regroup, the game has shifted.
EMM will come in confident. After knocking off RHS and battling through elimination pressure at Regionals, they’ll believe they belong. Sohan Riedel can fill it up, and if EMM gets hot early from three, they could hang around for a quarter.
But here’s the issue: FHS doesn’t rely on one scorer or one rhythm. They attack in waves. If you key on a primary option, someone else burns you. If you gamble defensively, they convert at the rim. If you slow the tempo, they’ll execute in the half court.
EMM’s defensive lapses — the ones that show up in stretches — simply can’t happen against this Fredericton group. Because against FHS, a lapse isn’t two points. It’s six.
Look for FHS to establish control early, stretch the margin before halftime, and turn the third quarter into separation time.
Prediction
Competitive early. Comfortable late.
FHS 110 – EMM 80
Northeast “AAA” Boys at Harrison Trimble
Game 1 - Harrison Trimble HS vs. Ecole Secondaire Népisiguit
The NE Provincial Sectional tips off in Moncton, and the host school, Harrison Trimble High School (HTHS), couldn’t have scripted a more favorable opening matchup against École secondaire Népisiguit (ESN).
Let’s call this what it is: on paper, it’s a mismatch.
ESN deserves credit. They’ve battled through injuries this season and are finally close to full strength. They showed heart last weekend at the NE Conference Regional, competing with grit and refusing to fold when games tightened. That resilience speaks volumes about their character.
But Friday night is a different stage.
HTHS is deep, athletic, and relentless. They defend at a high level, rebound out of their area, and push tempo the moment they secure possession. When they get into transition, they don’t just score — they demoralize. And in a sectional setting, playing at home with energy behind them, that edge only grows.
For ESN to keep this competitive, they would need to slow the game to a crawl, limit turnovers, and convert nearly every quality look they get. That’s a tall order against a Trimble squad that thrives on speeding opponents up and capitalizing on mistakes.
Expect HTHS to assert control early — pressure defense creating live-ball turnovers, quick run-outs, and a double-digit lead before the second quarter settles in. By halftime, this one could already feel decided.
The bigger storyline? Managing minutes. With a sectional final looming Saturday, HTHS will likely look to build separation quickly and get key contributors significant rest.
Prediction
All business from the opening tip.
HTHS 115 – ESN 65
Game 2 - Leo Hayes vs. St. Malachy’s
If you’re circling one game that could steal the weekend spotlight, this might be it.
Leo Hayes High School and St. Malachy's Memorial High School meet again just one week after their SW Regional semifinal clash at FHS — a game Leo controlled convincingly, 107–83.
But don’t expect a carbon copy.
On paper, these are two evenly matched squads. Both can score. Both have size. Both have playoff experience. The lopsided score last weekend felt more like a perfect storm — Leo clicking offensively while St. Mac’s struggled to string together stops.
The biggest tactical question entering this rematch: adjustments.
For St. Malachy’s, it starts with containing Leo’s interior presence — Malachi Brentumi. If he establishes deep position early and commands double teams, Leo’s perimeter shooters feast. St. Mac’s must decide: single coverage and physicality? Or early help and risk kick-outs?
Defensively, expect Leo to lean heavily into their 2-3 zone. It protects the paint, keeps Brentumi near the rim, and forces St. Mac’s to win from the perimeter. So the secondary storyline becomes simple:
Can St. Mac’s make shots?
If they stretch the zone, knock down open threes, and move the ball side-to-side with purpose, this game tightens quickly. If they settle for contested jumpers early in possessions, Leo will control tempo and the glass.
Unlike last week, expect this one to feel like a possession-by-possession grind. Momentum swings. Big runs answered by bigger shots. Likely a one- or two-possession game in the final two minutes.
In what could be one of the best games of the entire sectional weekend, we’re leaning slightly toward experience and interior advantage.
Prediction
Down to the wire — but Leo survives again.
Leo Hayes 88 – St. Malachy’s 84
Game 3 - Harrison Trimble HS vs. Leo Hayes HS
It sets up as a fascinating final in Moncton:Harrison Trimble High School defending home court against Leo Hayes High School.
On talent alone, Leo Hayes absolutely has enough to hang around — and maybe even scare the hosts. They’ve shown they can score, they have interior presence, and they’re not afraid of big moments.
But beating Trimble on their home floor? That’s a different assignment.
If there’s one vulnerability in HTHS’s profile, it’s foul shooting.
In their NE Conference semifinal against EMM, Trimble escaped with a narrow win — but they were atrocious from the charity stripe missing opportunities to stretch the lead. It kept EMM within striking distance when the game could have been closed out.
If that trend resurfaces, Leo Hayes will have life late.
For Leo, it starts with containing Trimble’s star point guard Byrce MacKenzie. He controls tempo, initiates offense, and gets teammates easy looks in transition. If Leo can pressure him, disrupt passing lanes, and make him uncomfortable, this game tightens considerably.
The other storyline? Resilience.
HTHS has shown all season that when they jump out early, they bury teams. But Leo hasn’t consistently demonstrated the ability to claw back from double-digit deficits. If Trimble lands the first punch and extends the margin into the teens, history suggests the Lions can sometimes fade rather than fight.
Playing in Moncton. Sectional final. Energy in the building.
That edge matters.
Leo will make runs. They have too much talent not to. But sustaining it for 40 minutes against a deep, athletic Trimble squad is a different challenge.
Prediction
Intriguing. Competitive. But the hosts protect their floor.
HTHS 94 – Leo Hayes 80
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